US experts see revival of Mideast talks taking months
Reuters
Date: 08-25-05
By Sue Pleming
WASHINGTON, Aug 25 (Reuters) - The United States hopes Israel's handover of some areas to the Palestinians will revive peace plans but it could be months before any real talks begin with the focus still squarely on maintaining security.
Middle East experts and former diplomats said on Thursday the U.S. role in the coming months would be to keep both sides talking, manage expectations and resolve security problems after Israel's pullout from Gaza and parts of the West Bank.
"If Gaza descends into turmoil and if attacks are mounted against Israel there is no peace process," said Robert Hunter, a former U.S. ambassador to NATO and a Middle East peace negotiator during the Carter administration.
A quick infusion of promised aid would boost chances of pushing the peace process forward and analysts said the United States should play a lead role in prodding nations to follow through on pledges made at the G8 summit last month.
Rich industrialized countries meeting in Scotland promised $3 billion a year to the Palestinians over the next three years.
"We need to dump money on them, build houses, create jobs. I am afraid the chances are it will fail because the money won't be there," said Hunter.
Dennis Ross, the U.S. Middle East envoy in the Clinton administration, said the United States should use its diplomatic muscle to get Arab nations to give more.
"I think it's astounding, that, for example, the United States is putting more money into this than Saudi Arabia," said Ross.
The Bush administration hopes the successful withdrawal will ultimately lead to serious talks on the U.S.-sponsored "road map" but officials said it was unlikely this would happen in the next few months.
The road map, approved by all the main parties in 2003, foresees more Israeli withdrawals, leading to a Palestinian state.
"We are going to continue to encourage both sides to remain focused on their road map commitments but I think there will be a bit of a cooling-off period," said a State Department official, who spoke on condition of anonymity.
SECURITY IS KING
The administration is putting all its energy in the coming weeks into ironing out security problems, and particularly access into and out of Gaza and the West Bank.
"Security is the beginning, the middle and the end, and security cannot be had either for the people in those areas or for those who live around them if there is a variety of armed organizations that are allowed to operate," U.S. Assistance Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs, David Welch, told reporters on Wednesday.
Managing expectations on both sides will be a challenge, said Shibley Telhami of the Brookings Institution.
The Palestinians will want answers on the West Bank, the future status of Jerusalem and other border issues while Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon would be under pressure to wait after the emotional trauma of the recent pullouts.
"They (the Palestinians) are not in the mood to yield on the West Bank and certainly Sharon will not. The real question is where the (U.S.) administration comes in to prevent that gap of expectation from derailing the entire process at a time when domestic politics will push them in that direction," said Telhami.
Sharon and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas will be preoccupied with domestic politics, with Palestinian elections called for in January and Israel's expected soon after.
Ned Walker, a former ambassador to both Egypt and Israel and now president of the Middle East Institute, said U.S. timing was key and Washington had to see how long it could wait before the pressure became overwhelming to move on key issues.
"There are a lot of ifs out there but a lot depends on Sharon and Mazen who face terrific political hurdles at home," said Walker. "I think the focus will fall off the road map at least until after January.
Source
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