Hamas win hardens Israel's unilateral instincts

Fri Jan 27, 7:57 AM ET

JERUSALEM (Reuters) - Hamas's shock election win is likely to encourage Israel to take more go-it-alone steps to impose a border with the Palestinians on its own terms.

The idea of a unilateral withdrawal from parts of the occupied West Bank, if talks remain blocked, has been floated as a possible option for Israel since it completed its withdrawal from the Gaza Strip last year.

Given that Hamas is formally dedicated to destroying Israel, neither side is ready to talk.

"There is even less of a potential for political resolution or stability and therefore that indicates a greater likelihood of unilateral steps," said Israeli analyst Gerald Steinberg.

Palestinians fear one-sided action by Israel will leave them trapped in enclaves within a controversial Israeli barrier and without swathes of West Bank land that they seek as part of an eventual state.

"Israel's slogan that there is no Palestinian partner is among reasons for Hamas's victory," said Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat. "Israel's unilateral steps have not stopped."

Reviving statehood talks that collapsed in 2000 had not looked likely even before Hamas ended the domination of Fatah, which hoped to build a state alongside Israel.

Israel long insisted there could be no negotiations until President Mahmoud Abbas disarmed militants under a U.S.-backed peace plan, but he shied from confronting them and pointed out Israel's own failure to freeze Jewish settlement building.

After the election win, Hamas will be better placed still to resist calls for disarmament, by citing its popular mandate.

However, while refusing to abandon their ultimate charter aim of an Islamic state that would engulf Israel, some Hamas leaders say they are ready to accept a long-term truce if Israel leaves the West Bank and East Jerusalem as well as Gaza.

OLD LANGUAGE

The reaction of interim Prime Minister Ehud Olmert to the Hamas victory echoed language used by Ariel Sharon, incapacitated by a stroke three weeks ago, when he boycotted the Palestinian Authority under late leader Yasser Arafat.

"The Palestinian Authority, whether it just includes Hamas or is led by it, is not a partner," he said.

No other response was expected given that Olmert is campaigning for an election he is expected to win on March 28.

But commentators said that in reality Israel would adopt a wait-and-see approach. Hamas has mostly kept a truce for nearly a year and has not carried out a suicide bombing for far longer.

Some Israelis recalled that the Jewish state quietly helped Hamas emerge as a useful counterweight to Yassser Arafat's Fatah during the first Palestinian intifada in the late 1980s.

"We should remember that they were not born with a lust for murdering Israelis," said Avi Dichter, an ex-internal security chief who oversaw the assassination of Hamas leaders during a later revolt from 2000 and is now standing for Olmert's party.

"If Hamas think as statesmen and join the family of nations, they will find us an attentive partner," wrote Dichter in the Yedioth Ahronoth daily.

In practical terms, Israel will have little choice but to deal with a Palestinian government involving Hamas, even if that means going through a third party.

"The ultimate reaction on our part is that you seal the borders and let them starve, but of course that's impossible," said analyst Yossi Alpher.

SETTLEMENTS COULD GO

Contacts to permit the basic functioning of the Palestinian Authority, though, would be well short of discussions that Abbas wants on a permanent peace agreement for statehood.

Israel would not find it difficult to keep pursuing unilateral moves at the same time.

"They go about their business, we'll remove settlements and build fences," said Alpher, pointing out that Hamas could hardly object to the removal of settlements.

With no peace talks, diplomatic support for the measures, particularly from the United States, would likely be assured.

Olmert has already ordered faster construction of the barrier looping into the West Bank around major settlements. Israel says that it stops suicide bombers. Palestinians call it a land grab meant to pre-empt any future border negotiations.

Withdrawal from isolated settlements in the West Bank, a plan Sharon had been expected to pursue with or without negotiations, might be harder with a Hamas-led government.

The problem for any Israeli leader trying to quell settler opposition to such pullouts would be to avoid appearing to be handing the land to Hamas and "rewarding terrorism."

The result might be that Palestinians did not get even those patches of territory after settlers were removed.

"Israel can reduce the civilian presence, but maintain military control," said Steinberg.

(Additional reporting by Mohammed Assadi in Ramallah)

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