Pro-US Arab states mobilize against Israeli unilateralism

Tue May 30, 2:41 PM ET

AMMAN (AFP) - Pro-US Arab leaders are launching a diplomatic offensive to try to revive talks between Israel and moderate Palestinian leader Mahmud Abbas and head off Israeli threats to impose a unilateral peace.

But analysts voiced scepticism about the room for manoeuvre for US allies Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia in the face of Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's drive to set the Jewish state's final borders by 2010, with or without the agreement of the Palestinians.

Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak is to meet the Israeli prime minister at the Red Sea resort of Sharm el-Sheikh on Sunday for talks that could pave the way for a summit between Olmert and Abbas.

Jordan's King Abdullah II is to meet the Israeli premier in mid-June after warning in a letter to US President George W. Bush last month of the "negative repercussions" of any unilateral move by Israel.

And Saudi King Abdullah is scheduled to meet Mubarak Wednesday ahead of the Egyptian leader's talks with Olmert.

Jordan and Egypt are the only two Arab countries to have peace treaties with Israel and along with Saudi Arabia are key US allies in the region.

"There are clear Arab and Palestinian attempts to form an international front to put pressure on the Israeli government to relinquish its plan for a unilateral withdrawal," said Jordanian analyst Hassan Barari.

"The Israeli plan would put an end to the Palestinian dream of setting up a geographically cohesive and viable state," said the researcher at the University of Jordan's Centre of Strategic Studies.

"Jordan considers that a unilateral Israeli withdrawal would threaten its national security because it could escalate tensions in the West Bank and lead to a massive exodus to the east Bank (Jordan)."

Mouin Rabbani, senior Middle East analyst at the International Crisis Group, was more sceptical about what Arab leaders could hope to achieve in the face of the close alliance between Israel and the Bush administration.

"I don't subscribe to the view that Arab leaders are the movers and shakers of the peace process," Rabbani said.

"I don't think that any meaningful development can be expected ... especially as far as issues such as the revival of Israeli-Palestinian negotiations (are concerned)," he said.

"The best way to describe this is an exercise in damage control".

Arab leaders wanted "to avoid the collapse of the Palestinian Authority and to avoid security chaos" as well as stave off a humanitarian crisis in the Palestinian territories.

The European Union and United States have frozen direct aid payments to the Palestinian Authority since Hamas took power in March following its January election win, leaving the government struggling to pay its wage bill.

Israel has also cut off all contacts with a government it derides as a "terrorist entity", arguing that Hamas's refusal to recognize its right to exist or renounce violence means there is no partner for peace.

Barari said the "the emergence of a real Palestinian partner" was key to the efforts of pro-Western Arab governments to head off Israeli unilateralism.

"Hamas is not at all concerned by the peace process and Abbas is weak. At least that is what is said about him in Israel and in the West," the analyst said.

"That is why Arab efforts to make Israel refrain from a unilateral withdrawal must be matched with pressure on the Palestinians."

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