Riyadh could arm, fund Iraq's Sunnis if US withdraws: Saudi expert

Writing in the Washington Post, Saudi security expert Nawaf Obaid said the withdrawal of US forces from Iraq could result in Saudi King Abdullah opening the gates to provide Iraq's Sunnis funds, arms and logistical support to counter Tehran's support for Iraqi Shiite fighters.

If the US withdraws, Obaid said, "one of the first consequences will be massive Saudi intervention to stop Iranian-backed Shiite militias from butchering Iraqi Sunnis."

Obaid, a scholar at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington and a security and energy adviser to the Saudi ambassador to the United States, said King Abdullah has fended off "intense" pressure to provide financial and arms support for Iraq's Sunnis from Sunni leaders inside Saudi Arabia and around the Middle East.

Also pushing Abdullah, he said, are "a new generation of Saudi royals in strategic government positions who are eager to see the kingdom play a more muscular role in the region."

But Obaid said that King Abdullah pledged to US President George W. Bush that he would not intervene, despite the rise in bloody sectarian reprisal killings between Iraq's majority Shiites and Sunnis, in what some describe as a civil war.

However, that would change if the United States begins pulling its troops out, Obaid warned, painting a picture of a proxy conflict between Sunni Muslim leader Saudi Arabia and rival Shiite power Iran.

"Options now include providing Sunni military leaders ... with the same types of assistance -- funding, arms and logistical support -- that Iran has been giving to Shiite armed groups for years."

"Another possibility includes the establishment of new Sunni brigades to combat the Iranian-backed militias.

Saudi Arabia, the world's leading oil exporter, could also flood the oil market forcing prices down by half, a move Obaid said "would be devastating to Iran."

Obaid's Washington Post piece, which he said reflected his own views and not the Saudi government's, came just days after US Vice President Dick Cheney flew to Riyadh to consult with the Saudi ruler on Iraq.

Obaid said that both Shiites and Sunnis are responsible for the violence and quickly rising death toll in Iraq. However, he said, only the country's Sunnis, 15-20 percent of the population, risk "being exterminated" if the US pulls out leaving a security vacuum.

"In this case, remaining on the sidelines would be unacceptable to Saudi Arabia," he said.

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